Ukraine-Russia Conflict
by Mike James
How quickly things can change! The recent tension between Ukraine and Russia changed into war and quickly involved the Western powers. Like any conflict, things can get out of hand quickly.
One of the things that may manifest when this conflict simmers is a more united European Union (EU). The most powerful nation in the EU is Germany, and this crisis has probably had the most significant effect on them thus far.
Within a week Germany stopped completion of a gas pipeline with Russia, suspended close banking ties, provided lethal weapons to Ukraine, and promised to increase their defense spending.
Just a few weeks ago, German politicians who wanted to send helmets to Ukraine were called warmongers in Germany. But a recent poll found that 78 percent of Germans now support a massive increase in German defense spending.
The German foreign minister, Annalena Baerbock of the Green party, which has pacifist roots, stated that "perhaps on this day, Germany is leaving behind a form of special and unique restraint in foreign and security policy."
Baerbock is referring to Germany's history since World War II of limiting their ability to throw their weight around in foreign policy and defense spending.
The new German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said the West is now living through a "Zeitenwende," meaning a turn in the times or a new era. This is surprising coming from Scholz because, as a leader of Germany's Young Socialists movement years ago, he spoke out against "aggressive-imperialist NATO."
Scholz said much more in a late February speech to the German parliament. "It's really revolutionary," said Sophia Besch, a Berlin-based senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform. "Scholz, in his speech, did away with and overturned so many of what we thought were certainties of German defense policy. He ticked off just one taboo after the next."
In the speech, Scholz introduced a special fund ($113 billion) for investments in Germany's armed forces. He committed Germany to spend more than 2 percent of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on defense. That is a target all North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) countries are supposed to meet, but less than half of them meet it.
Tyson Barker, head of the technology and global affairs program at the German Council on Foreign Relations, said, "It's a very disorienting moment. But, at the same time, the public and the political class are all on board."
Since the late 1960s, West Germany had the policy to normalize relations with the Soviet Union. Those views have continued down to the present day, and Germany has looked at itself as a buffer between its Western allies and now Russia.
Germany was "really guided by this idea that European security could only be achieved with Russia," Besch said. "And in his speech, Scholz has now called out Putin's action, Putin's Russia, as a threat to the European security order."
Besch also said Germany was amid developing a new national security strategy. How this plays out will be interesting. The rest of Europe has also talked for years about setting up a new security identity separate from NATO. Will the war in Ukraine be the impetus for the new strategy?
For those of us who recall many articles and booklets from the Church in the past on the formation of a "Beast" power (Revelation 13 and 17) in Europe, this is quite eye-opening. But let's not forget many past events seemed eye-opening at the time (creation of the European common market-1957, Berlin Wall coming down-1989), but they have come and gone with no direct connection to the end time. But, as Shakespeare said, "What's past is prologue." In other words, history sets the context for the present.
I am of the opinion that change occurs slowly, and I think what is happening now with Ukraine and Russia is the death throes of the old-world order. Putin is a baby boomer who grew up with a World War II mindset. In his mind, he is trying to preserve Russia from Western encroachment. To him, Ukraine is still tied culturally and religiously to Russia. He sees Ukraine in a different way than most Ukrainians now see their country. Whatever the outcome of this war, men like Putin are in the last years of their power. A new generation will soon be leading all countries of the world with a completely different mindset than the World War II generation. In my mind, this will lead to what appears to be a more unified world, but that unity might be more pliable for manipulation (Revelation 13:2).
Please remember to take what I'm saying with a grain of salt. I'm no prophet or prognosticator.
Sources:
"War Rouses Europe, Fixates America, Redraws a Global Order," by Marc Fisher, in The Washington Post, March 3, 2022.
"Germany's Dramatic Reversal on Defense, Explained," by Jen Kirby, Vox at Vox.com, March 5, 2022.