Foreign Policy Changes
by Mike James
The February 24 United Nations (U.N.) resolution condemning Russian aggression in Ukraine and calling for the return of Ukrainian territory was overwhelmingly passed by the U.N. General Assembly. What was interesting about the vote was the United States (U.S.) joined with Russia, North Korea, and 15 other Russia-friendly countries against the U.N. resolution.
Part of the reason is the U.S. is trying to negotiate a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia. U.S. foreign policy is changing under the Trump Administration, and the "America first" mentality is impacting our foreign policy decisions. Rather than aligning with what the European Union (E.U.) may want to do with Russia, the U.S. seems to be forging its own path. Giving Russia some of what it wants for peace with Ukraine may pull Russia a little bit away from China. The U.S. is also looking to pull minerals from Ukraine for all the support we have provided over the last three years.
The most powerful economic nation in Europe, Germany, had elections on February 23. The next chancellor of Germany, Friedrich Merz, made this interesting declaration after winning. He said Europe needs to "achieve independence from the United States step by step."
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has called for the creation of an "army of Europe" due to his concerns the U.S. may no longer be a bulwark for Europe.
Since the end of World War II, Europe and the E.U. has relied on the U.S. as its most important foreign ally. The new Trump presidency is making it clear that U.S. foreign policy will not proceed in the same way as past U.S. administrations. Under Trump, an "America first" agenda will not always align with European positions as evidenced by the negotiations for peace between Russia and Ukraine led by the U.S.
This new reality could force Germany and the rest of the E.U. to increase their own defense spending as added insurance from a Russian threat and new policy coming out of Washington.
A joint study released in February by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy and Bruegel (Brussels-based economic think tank) estimates that Germany would need to increase its defense budget by $145 billion to ensure that Europe could defend itself against Russia without U.S. assistance. The Germans would also probably have to provide NATO with up to 100,000 additional troops without U.S. support. These ideas are now being investigated by European think tanks.
As I've said before in previous blogs, change does not normally occur all at once. Usually, change comes slowly due to precipitating events that have a domino-like effect. Why might this change in U.S. foreign policy under Trump be a sea change? Possibly, because once a change occurs in U.S. foreign policy, it will be much easier for future American administrations to continue in that direction. Regardless of which party wins the presidency in 2028, this change in U.S. foreign policy that is now occurring will make it easier for future administrations to follow suit. In the first Trump presidency there was talk of moving away from Europe to a more "America first" agenda. This second Trump presidency is making that happen.
Why does this matter regarding the Bible? Through most of the twentieth century, the Church of God's perspective was to watch developments in Europe as a possible base of the future Beast power and/or King of the North (Revelation 13:1-10; Daniel 11). Since the splitting of the Church of God in the late twentieth and early twenty-first century, many other possible scenarios have been formulated and propagated.
There are no prophets in the Church today we can rely on for a direct message from God. Therefore, we should revisit possible scenarios from time to time so we can pass on this knowledge as the Church moves through history—especially when changes occur. We need to keep our minds open to new ideas, but let's not forget some of the old ideas that were very popular at one time in the Church. Keeping this institutional knowledge alive in the Church might be one more way we can reach out to people in the future if change continues in a certain direction.
Sources:
"U.S. Votes Against Condemning Russia," by Karen DeYoung, John Hudson, and Siobhan O'Grady, The Washington Post, February 25, 2025
"Germany's Likely Next Leader Calls for European Independence from U.S.," by Adam Taylor, The Washington Post, February 25, 2025
"'Army of Europe' needed to challenge Russia, says Zelensky," by Dearbail Jordan, BBC News, 16 February 2025, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvgl27x74wpo